2026 NFL Draft: Potential Sleepers/Busts
- sivakumarpranav
- Apr 21
- 7 min read
Which players will perform vastly differently from their draft stock in the league?
As we hit draft week, draft consensus has largely finalized on all the important prospects this year, with expectations clear for most player's futures. However, each player is different, and for every team and scout there will be some players with much higher perceived potential than shown in their draft stock, as well as players that they are sure will flame out if selected too high or by the wrong team. With that said, here's my take on a couple of names that I think will be talked about very differently with hindsight than they are now.
Sleeper #1: Will Lee III, CB, Texas A&M
The Good:
Transferring in from Kansas State, Lee was a headliner on defense in 2024 itself, getting named 2nd team All-SEC with 10 pass breakups on the year. He profiles as a steady press corner with good react and pursuit skills, and has strong measurables for the position.
Lee is tenacious in his play as well, never backing down even versus the toughest assignments the SEC had to throw at him. He has a knack for coming up with the ball and created several turnovers in both 2024 and 2025 for the Aggies.
The Bad:
Lee isn't the smoothest athletically, and hitches in his backpedal expose him to more crafty route artists. He ran an alright 4.52 at the Combine, but long speed is something to consider when scouting Lee.
Lee is strong in pure coverage, but not the strongest in terms of supporting against the run. He needs to clean up his technique and make solid decisions instead of sloppy grabs at runners.
Outlook:
As a pure football player, Lee is one of the better ones this CB class has to offer, holding his own consistently on an island versus top SEC competition. That said, some slight athletic concerns hinder him, and he is a little more raw when it comes to handling the jump to the next level. Overall, I could see Lee as a very solid CB2 or even low end CB1 for his rookie contract and maybe even beyond, great value for a projected 4th round pickup.
Ideal Team Fit: Detroit Lions
Bust #1: Christen Miller, DT, Georgia
The Good:
A slight tweener between a end and true nose tackle, Miller does a good job holding anchor in the run game and rarely loses sight of the football. He is good explosively and has the quickness to make noise in the backfield.
Miller also does well in terms of motor and working late in reps. He has a clean injury history, having not missed real time through his college career.
The Bad:
Miller can get through gaps, but he struggles getting off blocks once his opponent has latched on. He also lacks power at times to walk his man back in a pass rush situation.
Miller's production also doesn't match what would be hoped from an early pick. His top season still had only 1.5 sacks and 4 TFLs.
Outlook:
Yet another high-end prospect off Georgie's vaunted defensive line, Miller is a well-rounded prospect who does a lot right for his potential in the pro game. That said, I think the upside element is a little lacking, with Miller lacking a "wow" element to point to when envisioning his role in a NFL defense. I think Miller's versatility could allow for him to have a fine career, but he could disappoint for his current expectation in the early second or even late first round.
Ideal Team Fit: Houston Texans
Sleeper #2: Jakobe Thomas, S, Miami
The Good:
During Miami's run to the national title game this year, several members of their defense absolutely showed out, making play after play en route to dispatching top powers such as Notre Dame and Ohio State. Thomas was a prominent example, as a fifth-year player who had a breakout season in 2025.
He shines both in run support and as a blitzer, a strong tackler with enough athleticism to play a hybrid role at nickel as well. He has brilliant instincts and a feel for the football, notching 9 picks over his college career.
The Bad:
An older prospect, Thomas isn't a X-factor in coverage all too often, as he can lose positioning deep and get caught behind the play. He spent 5 years in college but only 2 of those at the Power 4 level, having played at Middle Tennessee State before that.
With such a star-studded defense around him, there's also the worry of Thomas' play being because of his teammates rather than part of it. On another team, there's an argument to be made that he wouldn't be on the radar nearly to the same extent that he is now.
Outlook:
Again, Thomas is a versatile and effective playmaker who keeps his head on a swivel and just makes plays for his team. That said, his explosiveness and deep speed could haunt him at the next level, with these measurements falling a little short of the desired, especially for an older prospect with a late breakout. Thomas has a lot to overcome, but what he's shown on film this year screams "potential starter", and consensus says he can be had early on Day 3 as a budget option to the more heralded safety prospects this year.
Ideal Team Fit: Indianapolis Colts
Bust #2: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
The Good:
A 2 year starter for the Utes, Lomu formed one of the best tackle duos in the nation with fellow high draft pick Spencer Fano. He is still only a redshirt sophomore, indicating room to grow once he's in a NFL weight room.
Lomu is quick yet effective in pass blocking, with good hand placement and solid movement skills to cover against speed rushers. He plays with a high IQ and does well against exotic blitzes thrown his way.
The Bad:
Lomu falls behind the curve in run blocking, as he lacks the power to sustain blocks and the footwork to climb well to the second level. He is also susceptible to bull rushes, where his anchor can drop and he can get walked back to the QB all too easily.
Lomu could also stand to play with a tougher demeanor, as even when he drives out successfully he sometimes does not finish the rep. He has the frame to do it but needs to add some weight, raising questions as to how that would impact his natural athleticism.
Outlook:
Lomu is very athletic, and there's a lot to like about his game, even if the player opposite him in Fano is likely a better prospect. Lomu is an active player with strong feet, giving him high upside as his QB's best friend on the left.
Lomu does need to fix up his play in the run game, and that comes with adding power and weight that will make him a liability if he can't. His anchor is also weak, and he is likely a LT-only player in the pros with limited versatility. Lomu has better upside than some tackles projected to go before him, but he has a lot more work to do than people realize in order to justify a first round investment.
Ideal Team Fit: Cleveland Browns
Sleeper #3: Ar'maj Reed-Adams, IOL, Texas A&M
The Good:
Another Aggie on this list, Reed-Adams is a true mauler in the run game who can latch on and drive in any direction you ask of him. He lands a strong first punch to keep interior rushers at bay, and has enough play recognition to pick up on stunts and loops from odd fronts.
Reed-Adams is also a experienced player, with multiple years at two schools (Kansas). He plays with a strong anchor and rarely ends up on the ground.
The Bad:
Reed-Adams was one of the poorer testers athletically at the Combine, falling behind in both the 40 as well as explosiveness testing. This shows on film, as he sometimes struggles as a puller, as well when moving out on a screen.
Reed-Adams can also play too high at times, leading to leverage losses against rushers with a lower center of gravity. He walls off well in gap runs but needs to work on precision to fit a zone scheme.
Outlook:
A sixth-year player, Reed-Adams is a player who's been on my radar for a few years now, as a powerful run blocker with enough control to hold up i pass pro with no issues. However, the athleticism is really not there to fit the NFL benchmarks, which could take him off some teams' draft boards altogether come Days 2 and 3 later this week. Overall, for a late late pick, I think Reed-Adams has enough upside to compete for and perform with a starting role, so I think it's worth the investment over pure ST guys as Saturday morning drags on.
Bust #3: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
The Good:
The most controversial one for last, Tate is the next name up from the Buckeyes' so-called "WR factory, and as such sat for a while behind future NFL starters such as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. He flashed as a rotational player during the 2024 run to the national title and racked up nearly 900 yards in 2025 alongside 2027 top prospect Jeremiah Smith.
Tate is one of the most fluid wideouts I've ever seen at over 6'1, and he uses double moves and startling change of direction to win on deep and intermediate routes. His hands are good through contact and drops are not an issue at all.
The Bad:
Although a savvy mover, Tate could use more in terms of both explosiveness and route-running ability, both hindering his chances to separate from more sticky corners. While others disagree on the time, his listed 4.53 40 is a bit less than what NFL teams wanted to see from him.
Tate also doesn't bring too much as a creator after the catch, but he plays hard and can keep his feet moving for an extra couple on some tackles. On a couple plays on film, he showed a lack of effort when he wasn't getting the football.
Outlook:
Regardless of this one blogger's opinion, Tate is one of the highest-floor prospects at the receiver position in a while, as good movement skills and soft hands will take him a long way in any receiver room. With that said, he doesn't have the high-end ability to be a true WR1 in my opinion, and needs a little more athletically in order to separate consistently from NFL corners. Overall, I think Tate would be a fine pick near the tail end of Round 1, but he might not live up to expectations if, as expected, he is taken Top 10 - and especially if to a team without a strong WR1 in place already.
Ideal Team Fit: LA Rams
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